Power and Natural Gas Are Still Connected. Just Differently.

For years, one of the easiest ways to understand electricity pricing was to watch natural gas.

When natural gas moved, power often followed.

That relationship still matters. But the energy market is becoming more complicated, and businesses need to understand why.

Natural gas remains a major part of the generation stack. In fact, the U.S. Energy Information Administration expects natural gas to provide roughly 40% of U.S. electricity generation through 2027. At the same time, natural gas production is expected to reach record levels in both 2026 and 2027.

That should be good news for electricity buyers.

And it is.

But it is only part of the story.

Electricity demand is also moving into territory we have not seen before. EIA is forecasting record U.S. power consumption in 2026, followed by another record in 2027. Data centers, AI, electrification and new large-load projects are adding demand to a grid that cannot expand overnight.

That creates an interesting energy market.

We can have healthy natural gas production and storage while simultaneously experiencing pressure on electricity costs.

Why?

Because your electricity price is no longer simply about the cost of the fuel used to generate it.

Generation availability matters. Transmission matters. Capacity matters. Local congestion matters. Weather matters. And increasingly, the speed at which new demand is being added matters.

We saw a good reminder of that in PJM this weekend. During Sunday evening, PJM real-time electricity prices moved sharply higher in many areas, including Ohio and Pennsylvania, even with a relatively well-supplied natural gas market.

For commercial energy buyers, the takeaway is not that natural gas no longer matters.

It absolutely does.

The takeaway is that watching one market indicator is no longer enough.

Energy purchasing is becoming less about finding a price and more about understanding the risks behind that price.

That is why our process at Energy Partners.US remains simple:

Understand your risk. Analyze the market. Build a plan and process. Execute timely.

The market will move.

Your strategy should already know what to do when it does.